Adam Watson (00:00)
Welcome back to “Simplifying the State,” the podcast where we break down politics so you don’t have to spend your summer trying to keep up with the 50 world-changing stories that seem to come out every week. As always, I’m Adam Watson.
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OK, so Nicholas, what do Pam Bondi, Kash Patel and Dan Bongino all have in common?
Nicholas (00:37)
All their first names have the letter “A” as the second letter.
Adam Watson (00:42)
I guess I didn’t realize that until now, but that wasn’t the answer I was looking for.
Nicholas (00:47)
Darn it!
Adam Watson (00:49)
The answer I was looking for was that they are all senior Justice Department officials. Pam Bondi is the Attorney General, Kash Patel is the Director of the FBI, and Dan Bongino is the Deputy Director of the FBI. And all of them have been involved in some capacity with the recent controversy surrounding the Epstein files. And that’s kind of what we’re talking about today, less so the content of the files themselves, more so the fallout in MAGA world and what that could mean going forward for the Republican Party and for the Trump administration. So Nicholas, do you want to give us a brief recap of how we got to where we are now?
Nicholas (01:31)
So, I don’t think I need to give much of an introduction to Jeffrey Epstein and his crimes. But recently—well, I guess it all started even five years ago—when a lot of stuff about Epstein came out and a lot of people demanded that the Epstein files be released.
At the time, the Trump administration in its first term said it would release the files and that there was a list. But nothing really happened until Biden took over. And through his administration, not a whole lot has happened in terms of it either.
Trump, as a campaign promise, agreed to release the Epstein files, along with files related to 9/11 and the assassination of John F. Kennedy. He has released files related to 9/11 and the Kennedy assassination. However, he has not released much in terms of files related to Epstein.
There have been a lot of conspiracy theories about this—some fueled by Trump himself. That hasn’t really helped his case, especially as he’s resisted releasing the files. He’s come under fire from his own base.
But this really came to a head recently when Trump exploded on social media—on Truth Social—claiming there is no list. Even though Pam Bondi said in an interview that she had it on her desk, ready to release. A lot of Trump’s core supporters—who have been very adamant that the Epstein files must be released—were pretty upset. They felt Trump or the people around him are working in bad faith. And, like I said a minute ago, they’re not too pleased about all this. It’s not looking good for him.
So, how else could this blow over?
Adam Watson (03:45)
Right. You talked about the backlash from Trump’s base. There are basically different buckets of people here.
The first bucket includes people like Charlie Kirk—those who originally came out against this. But since then, Trump has kind of made the rounds with MAGA influencers to sweep it all under the rug. He said he would stop talking about it and that he would “trust his friends in the administration” after the Turning Point USA conference—a major event for big names in modern conservative leadership.
People like Laura Ingraham, Charlie Kirk and Tucker Carlson all talked about this at length during their speeches. Then you have the more conspiracy theory-based influencers, like Alex Jones and Tucker Carlson—though more so Alex Jones, because that’s kind of his bread and butter.
In a video he made, Jones was visibly crying and said he’s very upset with the Trump administration over this.
Then you have a group that says no further action is necessary—that this is largely contained to the president’s administration. That includes people like Pam Bondi, Kash Patel, and Trump himself.
And then there’s a bit of an in-between—people who are upset about this but are blaming forces outside the administration. People like Steve Bannon, Marjorie Taylor Greene—figures like that.
So that’s kind of the breakdown of the MAGA world reaction.
How this could affect Trump going forward is important. One of the things that originally appealed to voters was the idea that he was an outsider—not part of the establishment. He appealed to voters, especially younger men, who feel the system protects insiders and needs to be taken down.
He claimed he would be the one to do it. The Epstein list was one of the symbols of what’s wrong with the system. And he said he would release it to take down the corrupt elite.
A lot of those people now feel betrayed.
Even comedians like Shane Gillis—who really resonates with that group of voters—seemed upset. He made a joke about it at the ESPYS., I think that’s how you say it.
Basically, this whole thing could blow up in Trump’s face because he’s gone from excuse to excuse. First, it was that nothing was needed. Then he said there was no list. Then he jumped to saying Obama wrote the list. He literally accused Obama, James Comey and the Biden administration of making it up.
And one of the biggest problems for him is not just the controversy itself, but how he’s handled it—jumping from excuse to excuse without offering any consistent reason.
He has now said he’s going to ask Pam Bondi to release grand jury testimony related to the Epstein case, though he says it’s subject to court approval.
The main theory about why he doesn’t want the files released is that people think he’s on the list. Obviously, there’s no way to confirm that. But there is evidence they had a close relationship—including a birthday card Trump sent to Epstein.
The New York Times wrote a story about that and released the card. Trump responded by launching a $10 billion lawsuit against the Times. I don’t know if they even have $10 billion. I’m also not sure where that’ll go, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Nicholas, what do you make of all that?
Nicholas (08:54)
It’s a disaster for the Republican Party—and for Trump especially. I really don’t know what he was thinking when he lashed out on social media. I don’t know if he talked with anyone beforehand. You can tell from his posts that he writes them himself and doesn’t really talk with people about how to put things diplomatically.
That transparency helped him win in 2024, but it also blew up in his face a lot. Especially with that minute or two missing from the Epstein cell footage—and him saying he doesn’t want the support of people who believe in the “Epstein hoax.” Yeah, it doesn’t seem like he’s doing too well right now.
Adam Watson (09:56)
Here’s the thing—this whole mess is a firestorm of his own making. He stirred up the conspiracy theories and chaos about the topic. He was the one saying there are a bunch of elites on the list—Democrats, opponents, all kinds of people.
He was the one saying, “I’m going to release it. I’m going to take down the system.” And now he hasn’t done it.
If he had just not said anything about it during the campaign, I doubt most people would care. I mean, some people would still care about the list. But the way he stirred things up has kind of turned into a metaphorical beast that he can no longer control.
Nicholas (10:51)
Yeah, totally. And conspiracy theories were a huge part of his campaign strategy. Just look at the debate between him and Harris. He lied—I don’t even know how many times—but a whole heck of a lot.
That’s what he pushes. Not necessarily lies, but stretches of the truth. And this might be one of those times where he pushed it too far and it didn’t work out for him.
Adam Watson (11:29)
Yeah. All right, well, thank you for listening to this episode of “Simplifying the State.” We’ll be back next week with our next topic.
Until then, like I said, make sure to follow the podcast on all platforms so you get notified when we upload a new episode. Subscribe to us on YouTube—if anything major breaks that we think can’t wait until next week’s episode, we usually post a rapid response video on there.
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