Adam Watson (00:00)
Welcome back to “Simplifying the State,” the podcast where we break down politics so you don’t have to try and figure out why Putin is in Alaska. As always, I’m Adam Watson. 

Nicholas Perrin (00:09)
And I’m Nicholas Perrin.

All right. Now, before we start, if you would be so kind as to rate and follow us wherever you are listening to this, and make sure to share with a friend or maybe just some random person on the street. Think of it as a great way to make new friends.

Nicholas Perrin (00:09)
And I’m Nicholas Perrin.

Adam Watson (00:24)
All right. So the big story last Friday was the summit between Putin and Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, where Trump rolled out the red carpet literally and figuratively. Unfortunately, not much came from that meeting. There was no announcement of a ceasefire, future meetings, or any movement on a peace deal. Trump said after the meeting between him and Putin in Alaska, he was going to try to arrange a trilateral meeting between Putin, Zelensky and himself.

But before we get into the specifics of what came from that meeting and what happened in the subsequent meeting on Monday, Nicholas, do you kind of just want to give us a breakdown of where the war is right now?

Nicholas Perrin (01:04)
Yeah, I can do that.

Nicholas Perrin (01:05)
Okay. So for the past about a year, the frontlines in Ukraine have not changed very much. From the beginning of the war and Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the north and their incursion into Kursk, those were the three major developments on the front line that really took the world by surprise. But now, really nothing has happened in the past many months, and Russia has been slowly advancing along the front lines, although it has been fairly costly for them in terms of equipment and manpower.

It’s no Bakhmut, but it is still very costly for Russia. Ukraine isn’t doing too well equipment-wise either. They’re getting a lot of modern equipment from NATO countries and the U.S., but it’s not exactly enough. Just in terms of Patriot systems, for example, Ukraine has, I think, five Patriot systems, which, if you don’t know, are anti-air systems that help with taking down missiles. But Ukraine has stated that they need at least 25 to properly defend their airspace.

So it’s not going too well for them on the front, but it can’t really go too well because there are, I think, fewer than 25 Patriot systems in the world. So they can’t do a whole lot about that. And yeah, they’re getting some howitzers from Germany, a lot of tanks from other NATO countries, which is helping with their stockpiles, but it’s not really enough because they’re also facing manpower shortages with reserve units.

They don’t want to lower the conscription age because that would not be popular at all, and that would take more hands off the production front, which are desperately needed because they’re running out of equipment, especially ammunition, fast. So neither country really wants to fight anymore, and Trump definitely doesn’t want them to fight anymore either. And so that brings us to Alaska.

Adam Watson (02:52)
Yeah, so the two leaders met in Anchorage, and based on the substance that was discussed, it seems to be mostly a symbolic meeting. There was a lot of fanfare. There was quite literally a red carpet. There was a military flyover, including a B-2 Spirit, a couple of F-22s, a couple of F-35s, I believe — kind of a show of strength from the United States.

But there wasn’t really much substance that came from the meeting. Like I said before, there was no agreement on a ceasefire like Trump had hoped to get. There was really no major progress on a peace deal. Shortly after the meeting took place, The New York Times reported that after talks in Alaska, Trump would support a plan to cede the Donbass region to Russia. Russia currently controls around 88% of the Donbass region.

The U.S. Special Envoy Steve Wyckoff also said that Putin agreed that the U.S. could provide NATO-like protection to Ukraine. President Zelensky’s response to this hailed and welcomed the United States’ pledge to provide security guarantees.

Zelensky ultimately rejected territorial concessions. Putin also reportedly offered to end the entire war if Ukraine ceded all of Donbass to Russia. But I doubt Ukraine will do this without significant diplomatic pressure from all the people supporting it or a major turning point in the war in Russia’s favor. But if a major turning point were to happen, then I assume that would not be enough for Putin, and he would then press for more. So I wouldn’t see that happening.

On Aug. 18, though, Trump, Zelensky and other leaders from across Europe, including the United Kingdom, Finland, France, Italy, the NATO secretary-general, etc., convened at the White House to discuss the aftermath.

So they discussed a multitude of things, one of which was the security guarantees that were previously mentioned, which are akin to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. For anyone not aware, Article 5 is the binding part of the NATO alliance. It basically means an attack against one is an attack against all — the main thing behind NATO.

After the meeting on Fox News, Trump said that when it comes to security, the Europeans are willing to put people on the ground or help them with things, especially probably by air. He did rule out putting U.S. boots on the ground, but like that interview quote said, he has not ruled out — and has hinted and suggested — that the U.S. would take a more supportive role in terms of air power. He did not specify what that could look like, so that could be anything ranging from air transport for European troops to U.S. fighter jets enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

So it really depends on what he decides. The group also discussed the previous Ukrainian and European prerequisite that a ceasefire would need to be in place before peace negotiations could begin. Zelensky seems to have dropped this requirement for the peace deal, so that could possibly help speed things along.

Like I said, Trump hinted at a future trilateral meeting between him, Putin and Zelensky. However, the Kremlin said that the agenda is not really set for that. Zelensky has said that the Russians are going to try to stretch this whole thing out as long as possible.

So it seems like we are not really close to that, barring any kind of major change. Trump said that sanctions are possibly on the table if there is no major progress within two weeks, although he had previously said that before the Alaska meeting. The deadline came and went, and there were no additional sanctions or tariffs placed on Russia. So, you know, we’ll see if this time it’s different.

Yeah, overall, there were major developments, but no major progress is what I would categorize the four days of those meetings. What do you think, Nicholas?

Nicholas Perrin (07:03)
Yeah, a lot of this, and just diplomacy surrounding Ukraine nowadays, especially if it’s peace talks, has just been really nothing. I’m not really sure if that’ll change, but there’s potential for it. I mean, with NATO’s new spending targets, if they follow through and deliver more equipment to Ukraine, it might cause Russia to come to the negotiating table a little more moderate. And I heard that Trump was mimicking some points that Putin had made during the meeting. What do you think about that, Adam?

Adam Watson (07:42)
I’m not familiar with what points you’re talking about.

Nicholas Perrin (07:45)
Like he started saying things like Crimea is Russia, there’s no chance that it can be Ukrainian, that Ukraine cannot join NATO.

Adam Watson (07:53)
Oh, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I know what you’re talking about now. Yeah.

Yeah. So basically, a couple of members of the Trump administration, and now I guess Trump, said that they believe two things are off the table. One is Ukraine joining NATO, which is, I suppose, why they’re pitching these security guarantees akin to Article 5, but specifically not Ukraine joining NATO.

And then the second one is Trump, among other officials, who ruled out the possibility of Crimea returning to Ukraine. And that’s obviously something President Zelensky wants.

Talking about the equipment thing very quickly, because we don’t want to make this whole thing an hour long, it’s not just an equipment issue. It’s also a manpower issue, because the Russians have a much larger population than Ukraine. And Ukraine is kind of running out of manpower.

Obviously, they could raise their conscription levels, but the issue is that once you do that, it’ll have severe long-term negative effects on their population that can actually work and contribute to their economy. So right now they’re kind of in a place where they’re putting as many people as they can onto the front lines while at the same time not doing long-term harm to their population and then to their economy down the line, hopefully when this horrible war comes to an end. What do you think?

Nicholas Perrin (09:21)
Yeah, there are really no good options for Ukraine in this scenario. I mean, they never had any good options from the start, really. But yeah, I mean, if Russia wants to completely wage a war of attrition, through manpower alone, theoretically, as long as they can get equipment from their allies, they will win eventually.

But it’s just the issue of troop morale, how well they’re trained, possible desertions that they also have to deal with, which I’m not sure how common they are anymore, but I remember them being kind of a big problem the first year or two of the war.

And I think, yeah, the Russian economy also has had periods of growth and stagnation, but now it is going into decline.

Adam Watson (09:51)
Right, yeah.

Nicholas Perrin (10:16)
Yeah, we’ll see where that goes in the long term. I don’t think it’ll bounce back as much as it had in 2022 and 2023-24.

Adam Watson (10:28)
Yeah, I mean, Putin had a substantial war chest before this war started, but that’s kind of starting to run dry. And then there was Sarah Payne, who works at the U.S. Naval War College. She made an interesting point about the damage done to Russia via Western sanctions. It’s not a short-term game with that. It’s a long-term game.

So their economy is going to be miles behind because once this war ends — which it eventually has to, whether that be a Russian victory or a negotiated peace, because unfortunately, a Ukrainian victory is likely not an option barring the complete collapse of the Russian state — their economy is going to have to play catch-up first to get to the point where it was before the war started.

And then it’s going to have to try to ramp up, whereas all the Western economies in Europe have been constantly evolving. I mean, their economy is kind of screwed in a long-term sense.

One last thing, though, before we go, which was I wanted to talk real quick about what could happen in the future once this war ends in terms of Europe. So it’s really going to depend on how soon the war ends.

Putin — there have been theories that once Putin has kind of dealt with Ukraine in whatever form that may be, whether it’s taking the Donbass region and consolidating that, he’ll then start to kind of rebuild his army and then possibly look toward other European countries. Nicholas, how likely do you think that could be? Do you think that’s something that could happen, or has this possibly made Putin think twice about acting against any NATO or EU member?

Nicholas Perrin (12:30)
Yeah, for sure. I mean, Putin definitely beforehand did not have the confidence to go against some NATO member or potential NATO member because, I mean, Putin already knew that he could not beat NATO even in the state that it was in in 2022.

So yeah, especially after this war, even if the gains Russia makes are significant — which they definitely will not be unless all of Ukraine’s allies abandon it — and even then, probably wouldn’t be substantial. Maybe they’ll get the provinces that they control on the front lines. But other than that, definitely not.

So yeah, their population will take a while to recover and may not recover for the next, I don’t know, 50 to maybe even 100 years, because you saw what happened to Ireland. This isn’t exactly the same extent of it, but Russia has a very low birthrate right now, so it’s not looking too good for them on that front.

Plus, yeah, their economy is crashing, and it’s going to keep crashing as long as sanctions are applied, which will probably be for the next couple of years after the war ends, unless he really makes some concessions, which I doubt he will.

And yeah, the state of the military is just not good at all. It’ll take a very long time for him to replace his armor losses, his ammunition, missiles and artillery pieces. That’s going to take so long that Putin might die before Russia has even the slightest chance of declaring war on a NATO member. So I just — there’s just no way, really. Maybe he’ll get some confidence and try to invade Moldova or something, but that’s as far as I can see, really.

Adam Watson (14:35)
Yeah, yeah, I mean, definitely.

Let’s be honest, what we’re discussing is whether he is realistic, sane, and doesn’t plan a blitz across the Baltic states with as many troops as possible, trying to force concessions to gain control of the Baltics.

Putin is an evil person, but he’s not crazy, stupid, or suicidal when it comes to his country. He can recognize the state of his military. It’s doubtful that we would see some kind of Russian attack on a NATO member for at least 10 years or something like that. But, you know, we could be wrong.

Nicholas Perrin (15:05)
But he’s not that dumb.

Adam Watson (15:30)
Who knows what is going through his head, and who knows what the Russian postwar recovery will look like? Maybe they get a lot of money from selling oil to China and India, and maybe that’s enough to buy some cheap Iranian, North Korean and Chinese weapons to rebuild their military, and who knows what happens.

Yeah, if everything stays the way it is when it comes to Russia, it would be unlikely that they would attack a NATO member for a significant amount of time.

All right, that’s going to do it for this episode. Thank you for listening. As we mentioned at the beginning, please rate the podcast if you like it. Make sure to follow to always be notified whenever a new episode comes out. Make sure to share it with a friend, family member, or anyone you see on the street who enjoys listening to the podcast.

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